|Looking like a bottom|
|Wednesday, 02 October 2013 01:25|
But CV sales still falling, project finance stagnant
The HSBC manufacturing PMI for September continues to contract, but at least it’s doing so at a slower pace. Taken together with the increase in the index of core industries, which rose 3.7% in August, the highest in nine months, the data could be interpreted as a troughing out of industrial growth; after all, factory output in July rose 4% month-on-month adjusted seasonally. Within IIP, manufacturing perked up 3% albeit helped by sharp spikes in a few items. The more optimistic will point to loan growth of 17-18% yoy growth over the last four fortnights compared with a more subdued 14-15% yoy increase before that. And Hero Motors has done well to report a 16% yoy jump in volumes while the 37% yoy jump in tractor sales at Mahindra and Mahindra reflects rural demand remains robust in September. Throw in the double-digit pick-up in exports for July and August, and some semblance of stability in the currency and it would seem like the revival is almost here. It may be premature, however, to be calling it a bottom.