Two-thirds of cases added in last one month PDF Print E-mail
Wednesday, 08 July 2020 03:02
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Increase in testing and a corresponding increase in positivity – number of new infections as a share of new tests – for India has meant that 62% of its 720,000 cases were actually added in just the last one month. A month ago, on June 7, India had 247,000 cases and a positivity rate of 7.3%; today, the positivity is up to 9.2%.

A similar trend can be seen in several other states as well. In the case of Maharashtra, which accounted for over a fourth of the increased infections in the country in the last month, the positivity is 21.2%; as a result, 57% of Maharashtra’s 212,000 infections were those that took place in the last one month. In the case of Delhi, 70% of today’s infected were added in the last month. All of which explains why ‘flattening the curve’ doesn’t really mean much (see graphic for other states).

What emerges from this is that, while Delhi and Mumbai used to be the epicentres of Covid-19, this is no longer the case. Cities like Chennai that, a month ago, had 20,000 cases – it accounted for 8.5% of India’s infections at that time – has 70,000 cases right now and accounts for 10% of the country’s cases. Hyderabad accounted for one percent of India’s cases a month ago, but this has jumped to 3%.

Among the states whose share has gone up dramatically are Telangana; it was 1.2% a month ago and is 4.7% today. Tamil Nadu has gone up from 13% to 18%, Karnataka from 2.2% to 4.1% and Andhra Pradesh from 1.4 to 3.2%.

The main reason for the increased infections is the ramping up of testing in these states. In the case of Delhi which tested 5,180 people per day a month ago, there were 27,654. Today, with 23,136 tests, Delhi has 100,823 infections. But, the saving grace is that, while positivity rises initially, it falls later; Delhi’s positivity was 25.5% a month ago, it rose to 36.9 on June 14 and is 9.7% right now.

In Mumbai, positivity continues to rise – from 26.9% a month ago to 29.1% today – but this is because its testing levels have been constant at around 4,000-5,000 per day for the past 45 days or so. .


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